Betting Home Underdogs in NFL Guide

betting home underdogsBetting home underdogs is a popular betting strategy commonly used by US football bettors. This strategy involves betting on NFL underdogs when they’re playing at home. When a home team is considered the underdog by oddsmakers, it means that the team is weaker than their opponents. Moreover, the opponent has been performing better overall on the road.

Bear in mind that blindly betting home underdogs because they’re playing at home isn’t recommended. Just because they haven’t been travelling or are your favorite because they’re in your hometown doesn’t a good bet make. There are a number of factors to consider when wagering on the home of the underdogs’ games. Betting on the pups (as they are sometimes known) is a strategy some American NFL bettors use because of the important home field advantage. This means the NFL underdogs are in a familiar environment, surrounded by their home fans.

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What you’ll find in this betting home underdogs guide:

Betting Home Underdogs Values

Using the NFL underdog betting system can be a risky move if you aren’t sure of what to do. However, if a bet placed on a home underdog wins, the rewards can be huge. For example, you have decided to bet on the New England Patriots in a match against the Cincinnati Bengals. You’re betting home underdogs here because:

  • The Patriots have just lost to another team.
  • And this is the Bengals’ first game after a week off while on the road.
  • Oddsmakers have set the odds at a +2.5-point handicap on the Patriots

The Patriots win this game, surprising everyone including their hometown. You who chose to wager on the NFL underdogs at home have won handsomely because of the point spread.

Home Underdogs Betting Advantages

In order to understand why betting home underdogs is a popular NFL betting strategy, let’s take a look at its advantages. It’s one of the oldest sports betting strategies, not just in the NFL but in other sports too. It may not be foolproof – no strategy is – but it’s worth taking a look at why US sports bettors should wager on the NFL underdogs at home.

Home Teams Tend to Win

Picking the outright winner in this betting strategy isn’t necessary but it does give you a huge advantage. If there’s one thing that’s been observed, it is that home teams tend to win majority of the time. While it may not be a sure thing, home underdogs cover sometimes as much as 57% of the time.

Bets Have Good Odds and Lines

When factoring their lines, sportsbooks automatically have points that favor the home team. In NFL point spreads, the home team already has three points. If a home underdog has four points, they are actually considered seven-point NFL underdogs. Therefore, when betting home underdog, you’re getting a much better line than posted – a ten-point favorite turns into a 13-point favorite.

nfl players passing the ball

NFL Against the Spread History

To highlight the importance of home underdog betting, let’s take a look at the NFL against the spread history. This table is a record of the team’s performance as the home ground underdogs from 2008 to 2017.

NFL TeamWin Percentage Against the Spread (ATS)
New England Patriots1.000
Atlanta Falcons0.688
New York Jets0.667
Cincinnati Bengals0.643
Indianapolis Colts0.640
Arizona Cardinals0.625
New Orleans Saints0.625
Minnesota Vikings0.600
Seattle Seahawks0.593
Pittsburgh Steelers0.545
Denver Broncos0.542
Kansas City Chiefs0.533
Carolina Panthers0.520
Dallas Cowboys0.500
Chicago Bears0.486
Buffalo Bills0.484
San Francisco 49ers0.483
New York Giants0.476
Miami Dolphins0.471
Los Angeles Rams0.449
Washington Red Skins0.447
Detroit Lions0.417
Cleveland Browns0.408
Oakland Raiders0.404
Los Angeles Chargers0.368
Tennessee Titans0.367
Green Bay Packers0.333
Baltimore Ravens0.333
Houston Texans0.333
Jacksonville Jaguars0.326
Philadelphia Eagles0.313
Tampa Bay Buccaneers0.308

Home of the Underdogs Games Betting Scenarios

For those that still don’t buy the hype around betting home underdogs, here are two scenarios that should change your mind.

When Playing a Divisional Rival

In this type of scenario, there’s a lot of tension between the two rivals. Therefore, American bettors can expect a tough, physical, and exciting game. Add to this rival crowds and one get’s an NFL football dream. NFL underdogs in this scenario tend to be a threat when it comes to covering the spread and winning the match. Furthermore, this is especially true if the game is close to the end of the season because road favorites have something while the NFL underdogs have nothing to lose.

When Playing a Second Straight Home Game

Secondly, if an underdog is playing their second straight game on their home ground, they tend to play better. They’re more focused and comfortable than in the previous game. Additionally, they’re also rested because they don’t have to travel.

Check out our specific NFL betting guides:

Other Sports Where Betting Home Underdogs Works

Betting home underdogs doesn’t just work for NFL bettors. You can use this strategy when wagering on:

  • Canadian Football League (CFL)
  • Major League Baseball (MLB)
  • National Basketball Association (NBA)
  • National Hockey League (NHL)
  • NCAA football and basketball
  • Other popular professional and college sports

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